AUD/NZD has been in a rising mode since Apr. 25, when it hit support near the 1.0825 barrier. Overall, the pair has been trading in an uptrend since November 18th, as marked by an upside support line drawn from the low of that day. Thus, we will consider the medium-term outlook of this pair to be still positive.
We believe that soon the bulls will test again the round figure of 1.1000, marked by the peak of Apr. 20, where a break would confirm a forthcoming higher high. Even if they liquidate again there and allow a slide, as long as that slide remains above the aforementioned upside line, we will consider it as a corrective retreat before another leg of buying.
In case of such a rebound, we expect the rate to overcome the 1.1000 zone and perhaps challenge the 1.1045 barrier, marked by the high of Aug. 18. Another break above 1.1045 could carry larger bullish implications, perhaps setting the stage for advances toward the high of Aug. 9, 2018.
Shifting attention to our daily oscillators, we see that the RSI rebounded from near its 30 line, while the MACD, although still below its trigger line, remains positive and points up. It could cross above that trigger line soon. Both indicators detect increasing upside speed and support the notion for this exchange rate to continue its journey north.
On the downside, we would like to see a clear break below 1.0755 before we start examining a bearish reversal. This could confirm the break below the upside support line drawn from the low of Nov. 18 and may see scope for declines towards the 1.0665 zone, marked by the low of Feb. 24, the break of which could carry extensions towards the 1.0610 or 1.0570 zones, marked by the lows of Mar. 15 and Jan. 17, respectively.
Another break below 1.0570 could encourage the bears to dive towards the 1.0500 zone, marked by the inside swing high of Nov. 25.
