AUDUSD has been underperforming over the last few sessions after it found a strong obstacle to surpass the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 0.7200 round number.
However, the 20- and 40-day SMAs are in the process to post a bullish crossover, while the MACD is still standing in the positive region. But the RSI indicator is losing momentum in the bullish area, suggesting that the next movements may be to the downside.
If price action remains above the short-term SMAs, there is scope to test the 200-day SMA at 0.7250 again, marginally below the 0.7280 resistance. Clearing this key level would see additional gains towards the 0.7340 inside swing low of April 18. Rising above it would see prices re-test the 0.7457-0.7490 barrier and then from there would touch the ten-month high of 0.7660.
If the short-term SMAs fail to halt the decline, then the focus would shift to the downside towards 0.7050. More selling interest could open the way for the almost two-year low of 0.6827 which, if breached, would increase downside pressure and bring about a new low near 0.6770 ahead of a dive towards 0.6570, taken from the inside swing high of April 2020.
Overall, AUDUSD has been negative since peaking at 0.7280. Near-term weakness is expected to remain as long as price action take place below the 200-day SMA. Though, a climb beyond the latter may increase the speculation for a bullish bias.
