- Bulls tried for a higher low major trend reversal on February 15 in the EUR/USD. However, the bulls failed, and the market continued more sideways.
- Bulls are forming a double bottom higher low major trend reversal (DB HL MTR) with the February 15 low. They will want a strong bull bar closing on its high to convince traders to buy. The 7-bar tight trading range lowers the probability.
- The odds still favor a rally that breaks above the February highs and a rally lasting for at least a couple of months (see weekly chart summary for details).
- The market has had a 12-bar pullback following the strong February bull breakout. The 12 bars lower the bulls’ probability; however, it is not yet 50%-50%, and the odds still favor more up.
- Since the market is still in a trading range, the market may fall below obvious support before reversing back up, such as the February 3 bottom of the bull breakout.
- Least likely, the market will have an endless pullback that sells off to the low of January.
- If the bulls are lucky today, they will close on their high.
- If today is a good buy setup for the DB HL MTR setup, bulls will buy above it. Other traders will wait for the market to get 2-3 consecutive bull bars before buying.
EUR/USD At Tight Trading Range
