- EUR/USD bears have a surprise bear breakout lasting three bars that ended on June 13. This breakout is probably strong enough to lead to a couple of legs down.
- The market is in an overall trading range, so the three-bar bear breakout may have a deeper pullback than bears want before a second or third leg down.
- Bulls expect another leg down after the three-bar bear breakout. These bulls will try hard to create a 2nd leg trap following any second leg down.
- If the bears get a small second leg down and a reversal up, it would create a small micro double bottom, and increase the probability of a reversal up.
- Bears want a break below the May 13 neckline of the double top and a measured move down, which projects to around 1.0000. It is unlikely the market will reach that projection, but it is possible.
- More likely, the market will continue in a trading range, and the bulls will ultimately test the June high, April 13 high, and the March 31 high.
EUR/USD: Bear Breakout
