- The EUR/USD tried to break out below the moving average (blue line) but failed to close below it and reversed up, forming a bull reversal bar.
- The bulls see this as another failed breakout attempt of the moving average. Next, the bulls want an upside breakout and a close above the tight trading range over the past month.
- More likely, the market will continue to go sideways.
- The bears see a 5-bar bull micro channel and expect sellers above the current bar’s high.
- I have said that the odds favor the channel up that began in March to evolve into a trading range. This means that the odds are the market will soon test prior higher lows like the April 10th low.
- However, the bears need to get close below the moving average. Until the bears get close to the moving average, traders will assume that all breakouts below the moving average will fail.
EUR/USD Bears Fail at Moving Average
