EUR/USD may test the May 13 low within the next few days. The bears will likely be disappointed, and the market will go sideways. June 9 and 10 were both big bear bars closing on their lows. They were strong enough to make the market short and increase the probability of a second leg down.
Although the bulls had a strong rally lasting more than 12 bars, the bulls failed to get above a major lower high (Apr. 21), so the bears channel is still intact. So far, the bears have done an excellent job reversing all the bars to the left.
This will increase the odds of a second leg down since there will be disappointed bulls who may use any bounce up to reduce their loss.
The market may have to fall below the 2017 low (1.0339). The May 13 low came within ten pips of the 2017 low and bounced up; however, the bulls appear to be giving up, which increases the odds that the market will have to fall below the 2017 low to see if there are more buyers or sellers below.
While the bears may get a strong breakout below the 2017 low, it is not likely. This means the odds favor buyers at or around the 2017 low and since buyers are likely at that level, the odds favor the current bears facing disappointment soon.
While the recent bear breakout is strong enough for a second leg down, the second leg could be small and lead to a failed breakout of the 2017 low.
