- Yesterday closed below the March 7 low, which is a sign of strength by the bears.
- Bears have had 12 bear bars out of the past 13 bars, which is a sign of strength.
- While the odds favor a rally and a failed breakout below the March 7 low, the bulls need a strong upside breakout or a reasonable stop entry.
- The odds are that the market will test back up to the April 13 close since it was a reasonable stop entry buy in a trading range. This means bulls will buy it and buy more at a new low and use a wide stop, confident the market will test back to it.
- While it is unlikely that the scale in bulls who are buying here will give up, it is possible that they will if the market keeps getting bear bars, which is why it is so vital the bulls take control of the market in the next day or so.
- While the selloff from March 31 has lasted many bars, it still looks like a leg in a trading range, which increases the odds that any bounce the bulls get will result in a minor reversal and more sideways.
- Ultimately, the bulls will probably test the March 31 high and the top of the bear trendline.
- Overall, the next day or two will be important. The bulls need to show their strength here, or the EUR/USD may get a strong bear breakout below the March 7 low.
EUR/USD: Bulls Need To Show Strength Here
