Bears are failing to hold EUR/USD below the two-month trading range. Both bulls and bears saw the bear breakout last week as a breakout below a final flag. They were both eager to buy when the follow-through on Jan. 28 was a Doji, indicating lack of conviction to go further down.
The first target for the bulls is the high of the Jan. 26 bear breakout, followed by a retest of the Jan. 13 bull breakout. Bulls see the past few days as a lower low major trend reversal setup.
So far, today is follow-through after yesterday’s big bull trend bar and the current price is at the high of the bar.
It is important to remember that today’s bull bar can look very different when the U.S. session closes. While it is unlikely that today will close as a bear trend day, the bears will try to weaken today’s bull bar as much as possible before the close of the U.S. session. Bulls want the opposite and will do everything they can to keep the bull bar as big as possible.
On the lower time frames, bulls will buy pullbacks, and bears will look to sell reversals.
The odds are the U.S session will mostly go sideways today as the bulls try to keep the market at the current price, and the bears try and get today to close as close to its midpoint as possible.
