- Last Friday, EUR/USD bears broke below the bear channel line and were trying to reach the March 2020 area.
- The channel down from February is tight, so the first reversal up will probably fail.
- Right now, it looks like the market will bounce for a few days due to the consecutive sell climaxes and try to test last Friday’s high.
- Again as stated above, the bear channel is tight, so the bulls will need a strong reversal up, followed by a retest of this price level to convince traders that the bulls have taken control of the market.
- Bears have an 11-bar bear micro-channel, and the bulls will probably need a micro-double bottom before they can get a credible stop entry to buy.
- Bears are bouncing just above an obvious measured move target based on the double top of the 3-month trading range.
- As stated on many blog posts, the odds are that the 3-month trading range will be a final flag, and the market will eventually test back into the midpoint of the 3-month range.
- Overall, this is a bear breakout of a bear channel, so the odds favor a failed bear breakout and a test back up into the 3-month range.
EUR/USD: Failed Bear Breakout
