Our previous forecast had $1.03920 as a target, but the EUR/USD price was not able to move down from its current range; the $1.05087 and $1.05825 range was holding the price.
On Monday, the price had opened with a gap and returned inside the range area from where the price tried to reach higher levels. The next day, the pair reached $1.05825 resistance and bounced back down, forming an insignificant, yet bearish Pin bar. It's positioning was inside the range area which just confirmed that the price was locked in.
By mid-week, we saw the price trying to break outside of the range area, above the $1.05825 resistance level, though the price returned inside quickly. The range made clear the strength of the bulls and bears, not allowing the price to break outside.
So, we're now faced with price indecision; the price needs to be defined by the breakout on the upside or downside. The price needs to find the strength to continue moving to $1.06736 resistance on the upper side and to $1.03920 on the downside.
We saw this similar scenario back in May, when the price had a false breakout on the upside and then moved down reaching low levels. The weekly and monthly levels are still open for downside, but the current market overview is not clear enough for us to easily define where the price will move next week.
The current support level at $1.05087 is stronger than the $1.05825 as resistance, so this could be a decision factor next week. If we see price getting and staying closer to $1.05825, it will mean the supply zone above the price is weakening and breakout could be near.
$1.06736 above as a resistance is not so strong, but it acts much stronger as a support which we can see on the chart. But, the confluence of resistance will have a higher impact so we need to pay attention to this if the price manages to break above.
