EUR/USD: It's probable that the high buy signal bar from July 6th will be tested within the upcoming days.
The July 6th buy signal bar led to a strong rally and trapped bears above its high. Since the market is likely in a trading range, the odds are that the breakout point (gap) above the July 6th high will close, allowing bears to make money.
The bears are hopeful that the tight trading range over the past few weeks will lead to a double top and measuring move below the July 6th low.
The rally up to the July high was strong, and there is a 60% chance that those bulls will be able to scale in lower and exit at their original entry. This means that bulls will look to buy above a strong buy signal bar expecting a test of the July high.
Overall, the market is in a tight trading range within a larger trading range. If one side had a high probability, the market would not go sideways. This means traders should expect both the bulls and bears to be disappointed.
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