- Mideast crisis has flared again speculation of euro-dollar parity
- Troubled Europe could take further inflation hit from surging energy costs
- Top Wall St banks expect dollar to reach $1 between year-end and 6 months
- Investing.com analysis shows EUR/USD must breach and hold 1.02 in first step to parity
The Middle East’s latest conflagration has got Wall Street’s forex researchers on the overdrive, forecasting possibilities for the euro to reach parity with the US dollar amid speculation the crisis will drive up Europe’s inflation with higher energy costs.
Big brand investment banks from JPMorgan Chase to Citibank and Goldman Sachs expect the dollar to reach $1 anytime between the end of this year and the next six months.
But Investing.com’s own analysis, in collaboration with SKCharting.com, shows that for any prospect of euro-dollar parity to be sustained, EUR/USD must breach and hold 1.02 while the Dollar Index — which pits the greenback against the euro and five other major currencies — should get past the 107.37 resistance.
At the time of writing, the currency pair was at 1.0539, off a 22-month low of 1.0448 set on Oct. 3.
The index, meanwhile, was at 106.36, off the 11-month highs at 107.35 also notched on Oct 3.
Charts by SKCharting.com, with data powered by Investing.com
CONTEXT
- Rising energy costs:
A fall to parity would bring the euro back to levels not seen since the second half of last year, when the single currency fell below $1 for the first time since 2002 after the war in Ukraine cut off much of Europe’s gas supply. Prices were trading at about €50 per megawatt hour on Monday, still far below a peak of more than €300/MWh hit in August 2022. Europe has largely filled its gas stocks in preparation for winter, cushioning it from further disruption.
Speculation that the world’s two leading currencies could reach equal standing has been on-off since the start of 2023, driven often by surging US Treasury yields on prospects of higher-for-longer US interest rates.
Now, there’s renewed concern that an expanding Middle East conflict would likely ratchet up inflation too and, as a byproduct, cause interest rates around the world to accelerate, said Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist at The Economic Outlook Group in Princeton, New Jersey.
A recent resurgence in energy prices sparked by the Israel-Hamas war has added to the pressure on an already slowing economy. The price of benchmark European gas futures has risen 26% since Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7.
- European Inflation vs Stronger Dollar:
While inflation and rates in other countries will likely rise in this worst-case scenario, the United States could be the exception as foreign investors pour capital into what they deem a safe haven during global conflict. Therein, will come additional strength for the dollar.
Says Baumohl: "Interest rates could go down”, but still “expect the dollar to strengthen."
Behind the dollar’s super run have been bond yields, which have risen so fast and so far this year — hitting 16-year highs — that many market participants now believe the era of low interest rates to be over.
Since early August, the yield on the benchmark US 10-year Treasury note has traded in excess of 4%, a level unseen from 2008 to 2021. The run to the 2007 peak of 4.8% on Oct. 3 marked a half a percentage point gain in just a fortnight.
The moves in yield have spilled over globally: to Europe, where they threaten to bring about a fiscal crisis in indebted Italy; and Japan, which is clinging on to rock-bottom interest rates by its fingertips.
- US “Exceptionalism” vs. World:
The surprisingly resilient US economy in recent months has also helped push the dollar higher, while mounting recession fears in Germany, the eurozone’s traditional growth engine, have pulled the euro lower.
The German government last week slashed its own forecast for economic growth, warning that its economy would shrink 0.4 per cent this year, while the IMF expected it would be the worst-performing major advanced economy this year.
Yasmin Younes, strategist at Citi, said:
“We think the US dollar can go further on US exceptionalism”. She added that the Federal Reserve still has more rate cuts priced in for next year than any other G10 central bank, “which we find incongruous with a tightening labor market”.
- Wall Street Majors See Prospects For EUR/USD Parity in a Few Months:
As a result, JPMorgan has downgraded its forecast for the euro to $1 by the end of the year.
Citibank said it is targeting a move to parity “within six months” given its “ongoing view of European recession well ahead of the US”.
The calls put the US banking giants at the forefront of a growing group of lenders forecasting that the common currency’s steady decline since the summer has further to run.
The euro has already fallen about 6% against the greenback since its peak in mid-July, as the unexpected strength of the US economy has pushed the dollar higher while the eurozone braces itself for a downturn.
Despite recent weakness, the euro is “still not incorporating a discount for the myriad of uncertainties the currency faces”, said
Meera Chandan, co-head of the global FX strategy research team at JPMorgan, citing “tighter financial conditions and potential geopolitical spillover risks, all of which come amid stagnant growth”.
Meera Chandan, co-head of the global FX strategy research team at JPMorgan, said in comments carried by Financial Times:
“We now expect EUR/USD to test parity, down from our previous target of 1.05.”
Chandan said Europe will particularly be impacted by “tighter financial conditions and potential geopolitical spillover risks, all of which come amid stagnant growth”.
Goldman Sachs said the bearish case for the euro has been growing, exacerbated by bond investors’ concerns over Italy’s bigger than expected budget deficit.
In a research note issued Friday, Goldman’s analysts said:
“First, activity data disappointed expectations over the summer. Second . . . fiscal concerns have re-emerged in Italy that will likely drive upward pressure on BTP [Italian government bond] yields . . . Third, the risks to oil and natural gas prices look skewed to the upside,” said Goldman Sachs.
OUTLOOK: What’s Needed for EUR/USD Parity
EUR/USD’s recovery attempts are currently facing resistance at 1.0563 — the session high from Monday, says SKCharting.com’s chief technical strategist Sunil Kumar Dixit.
The Daily RSI, or Relative Strength Index, at 43 is below the neutrality of 50 — which warrants an impending deeper correction if the current bounce attempts fail to clear through overhead resistance of 1.0640 and 1.0680.
A breakout above the Daily Middle Bollinger Band of 1.0563 will initiate short-term sideways moves with a positive bias towards the swing high of 1.0640, above which sits the 50-day EMA, or Exponential Moving Average, of 1.0680.
Explains Dixit:
“This scenario will be seen as a breakout above the broad descending channel, which will eventually aim for major resistance at the confluence of the 200 and the 100 SMAs, or Simple Moving Averages, of 1.0820 and 1.0830.”
If the 1.0640 - 1.0680 resistance zone is not cleared, a break below the recent low of 1.0495 will be considered as an initial signal for the beginning of the next bearish correctional wave.
This will have an immediate downside target at the 50% Fibonacci zone of the 1.0406 level, developed off the major wave that took EUR/USD from 0.9535 to 1.1277.
A breakout below the 50% Fibonacci zone of 1.0406 will target the next 61.8% Fibonacci zone of 1.0200.
Adds Dixit:
“This 61.8% Fibonacci zone is a hard floor to crack if the euro-dollar pair has to revisit parity last seen in September 2022.
After parity, EUR/USD will have first support at 0.9900.”
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Disclaimer: The aim of this article is purely to inform and does not in any way represent an inducement or recommendation to buy or sell any commodity or its related securities. The author Barani Krishnan does not hold a position in the commodities and securities he writes about. He typically uses a range of views outside his own to bring diversity to his analysis of any market. For neutrality, he sometimes presents contrarian views and market variables.
