D:
- EUR/USD bears triggered yesterday’s low 1 short.
- Currently, the bears have eight consecutive bear bars, and the odds do not favor nine bars. This means today will likely have a bull close.
- While the bears are strong, look back and find a time when there were nine consecutive trend bars in a row. This behavior is not typical and is climactic.
- At this moment, the bears are testing the March 7 bear close again. While it doesn’t look likely, today’s bar could look very different (a bull bar) when it closes.
- The odds favor more buyers at this price level, at least for a day or two. The bears are likely exhausted and will need a day or two.
- While the odds favor the trading range continuing, the bears are doing an excellent job with selling pressure. If the bulls get a strong second entry to buy here, the number of bear bars will lower the probability of the bulls.
- Traders have to remember that the market is at the bottom of a trading range and had a failed bear breakout of a bear channel. This means that odds favor a test of the top of the bear trendline above. This increases the odds of any bear breakout below March failing and the March – April trading range acting as a final flag.
- Overall, traders should look for a bull reversal setup or strong bull breakout during the intraday price action since the odds favor a bull close today.
