The EUR/USD had a bear signal bar yesterday. One can call it a Low 1 or a Low 2 (double top); it does not matter. What matters is that the signal bar is big and forcing traders to sell in the middle of a 9-bar tight trading range, which is not ideal.
Yesterday also came within ten pips of the March 28 low. Bulls would have bought the March 28 low during the April 5 selloff and bought more lower, confident they could exit the trade breakeven on first with a profit on their second. Since the market came within ten pips of the March 28 low, it will probably have to close this breakout point.
The odds favor yesterday’s bear stop entry failing and the market reversing up, which is what it looks like will happen. This may increase the odds of today having a close above the open or at least a weak bear body closing above yesterday’s low.
Bears hope that yesterday will lead to a successful double top (April 14 & April 21).
Bears also want a measured move down, breaking below the March – April range and testing the 2020 price levels.
Bulls want a test back up to the March high and ultimately reach the bear trend line above, which they probably will.
Today is a Friday, so the weekly chart is important. Few things to note on the Weekly chart:
Currently, the weekly chart is close to the open of the week (1.0805), which means the open of the week might be a magnet all day as traders fight over a bull or bear close on the weekly chart.
Since last week broke below the March 11 low (weekly chart), the bulls want this week to have a bull close which would be lousy follow-through for the bears, increasing the odds of a failed breakout below March 11.
As always, the day session has the potential for a big/surprise move as traders fight over the weekly chart close in the final hours of the day.
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