- EUR/USD bears have nine consecutive bear bars, which is extremely climactic. This means the odds favor a bull close today.
- While the nine consecutive bear bars are climactic, this is strong selling by the bears, and traders must be open to a low probability event such as a strong breakout below the March 7 low.
- More likely, the bears will soon be disappointed, and the bulls will get a minor reversal up for at least a day or two.
- Even if the bulls get a strong signal bar, the channel down is tight, so the first reversal will likely only be minor.
- While some bulls may buy this price level (March 7 low), most bulls are better off waiting for a credible stop entry due to the risk of a possible bear breakout here.
- Overall, traders should look for buy setups and bull breakouts with follow-through since the odds favor today’s closing above the open. Bulls will also look to fade weak bear selloffs.
- It is important not to be in denial if the bears get a strong breakout today. Just because the odds favor a bull close does not mean it is a guaranteed probability today.
EUR/USD: Odds Favoring Bull Close
