The EUR/USD is deciding if the selloff from the February bull rally is a pullback in what will become a bull trend or the start of a trading range and a possible bear breakout testing the January low.
At this moment, the odds favor a test of the February high and a breakout above the double top (January and February highs); however, every added bar lowers the probability of the bulls and increases the odds of more sideways.
While the probability does favor the bulls, traders may wait for consecutive bull bars before committing to longs.
Bull sees a higher low major trend reversal with February 14 and are currently wondering if the market will have to get down to the February 14 low and form a double bottom higher low major trend reversal.
Bears are hopeful that the market has a selloff to the January low and breakout below, followed by a measured move down. This is not likely.
On the monthly chart, the 2021 selloff looks like a bear leg in a trading range, which means that the market should have a bull leg in a trading range lasting at least for a few bars on the daily chart.
Bulls still have a reasonable chance at getting the bull breakout and measured move up based on the double top (purple lines) projecting up to 1.1844
Tags
LEGAL: This website is operated by Promax Trading Limited Registration No: LL18424 | NFA: 0563058
Registered Address: Lot No. 20, Level 1, Lazenda Commercial Center Phase 3, Jalan OKK Abdullah, 87000 Federal Territory of Labuan, Malaysia Operational Address: Office No 648, 6th Floor, Business Village, Block A Dubai, UAE Contact : +971-428-51729
Risk Warning:Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss of some or all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Regional Restrictions: We do not offer our services to residents of certain jurisdictions such as Canada, China, Federal Territory Labuan Malaysia, Romania, Singapore, the United States and to jurisdictions on the FATF and EU/UN sanctions list.