- The EUR/USD is deciding if the selloff from the February bull rally is a pullback in what will become a bull trend or the start of a trading range and a possible bear breakout testing the January low.
- At this moment, the odds favor a test of the February high and a breakout above the double top (January and February highs); however, every added bar lowers the probability of the bulls and increases the odds of more sideways.
- While the probability does favor the bulls, traders may wait for consecutive bull bars before committing to longs.
- Bull sees a higher low major trend reversal with February 14 and are currently wondering if the market will have to get down to the February 14 low and form a double bottom higher low major trend reversal.
- Bears are hopeful that the market has a selloff to the January low and breakout below, followed by a measured move down. This is not likely.
- On the monthly chart, the 2021 selloff looks like a bear leg in a trading range, which means that the market should have a bull leg in a trading range lasting at least for a few bars on the daily chart.
- Bulls still have a reasonable chance at getting the bull breakout and measured move up based on the double top (purple lines) projecting up to 1.1844
EUR/USD On Track To Test February High
