Yesterday was a bull bar closing near its high and a high 1 buy signal bar. Today so far is doji day and another trading range day.
Bulls correctly believe that the 3-day selloff is more likely a pullback from breakout above January 14 high than a reversal down from a double top (January 14 and February 10).
However, the past 8 days are creating trading range price action. The pullback might have to go more sideways to down before the bulls will buy.
Traders want to seek a series of strong trend bars in either direction before looking for a trend. In the meantime, they are betting on reversals and taking quick profits.
I believe Putin will not invade because he will conclude that the price is too high.
He still wants the Ukraine (he calls it “my Ukraine”), but he will probably use every non-military tool at his disposal. For example, he will try to manipulate Ukrainian politics to make it more friendly to Russia. That takes pressure off of the EUR/USD.
This is consistent with the daily, weekly, and monthly EUR/USD charts. There should be a rally lasting at least a couple months and reaching the October high.
Buyers are waiting until they are certain that Putin will not invade and that the problem will not spread further west in Europe.
Tags
LEGAL: This website is operated by Promax Trading Limited Registration No: LL18424 | NFA: 0563058
Registered Address: Lot No. 20, Level 1, Lazenda Commercial Center Phase 3, Jalan OKK Abdullah, 87000 Federal Territory of Labuan, Malaysia Operational Address: Office No 648, 6th Floor, Business Village, Block A Dubai, UAE Contact : +971-428-51729
Risk Warning:Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss of some or all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Regional Restrictions: We do not offer our services to residents of certain jurisdictions such as Canada, China, Federal Territory Labuan Malaysia, Romania, Singapore, the United States and to jurisdictions on the FATF and EU/UN sanctions list.