It seems that the EUR/USD has recovered somewhat in the second half of March. Participants are pricing in a tightening monetary policy this year between a likely two-step hike by the Fed in May and at least a small hike by the ECB by June. Inflation in the eurozone is expected to reach a record high of about 6.5% on Friday.
The recent consolidation seems to be less influenced by fundamentals than what's happening on the chart: sellers seem to have taken profits below $1.09, a 22-month low, with little demand, for now, to push the price lower. Even though there is no oversold signal and moving averages are successively above one another and the price, the volume has declined in the last two weeks. Traditionally, new sellers tend to wait for a bounce before joining the downtrend.
A bounce might occur depending on the reaction to various releases on Thursday and Friday. Even if fundamentals shift firmly to the dollar's advantage, new lows seem unlikely in the near future.
