- Yesterday was the 3rd straight day that the EUR/USD traded below the January 28 low, but only the 1st day to close below that low.
- I said that the bears need a 2nd consecutive bear day closing below that low to make traders conclude that the bear breakout will be successful.
- So far, today is a huge bear day and it is trading near the low.
- Today probably will remain a bear day, which will confirm the breakout. Traders will look for about a 400-pip measured move down to around the 2020 low.
- It is important to remember that most breakout attempts fail.
- Today is the 10th consecutive day where every high has been below the high of the prior day (micro channel). The selling has been relentless.
- Any breakout can fail. There is a 40% chance that this one will. The bulls need several bull bars closing near their highs before traders will see any reversal as more than a pullback in the bear trend.
EUR/USD: Selling Has Been Relentless
