The EUR/USD gapped up on Sunday’s open and is currently testing Friday’s high. Friday tested the March 7 close, an important magnet, and let the theoretical bears out of the market.
Right now, the bears have seven consecutive bear bars, which increases the odds that today’s close will be a bull bar. Six straight trend bars are rare, let alone 7, so today should have at least a 1-pip bull close.
While the bears have demonstrated strength by achieving six consecutive bear bars from the selloff starting on March 31, it still looks like a bear leg in what will continue to be a trading range.
Bulls hope today will lead to an upside breakout of the double bottom, test the March 31 high, and ultimately lead to a measured move of the March April trading range. This measured move would project above the February 2022 high.
The odds still favor the bulls and the market reaching the top of the bear channel at a minimum. When there is a failed bear breakout at the bottom of the channel, there is at least a 75% chance the market will test the top of the bear channel.
Bears hope that the wedge top (March 10, March 17, March 31) will lead to a second leg down following any pullback and ultimately break below the March 7 low and lead to a measured move down — which would reach the 2020 low at a minimum.
Overall, traders should expect the EUR/USD to go sideways to up at a minimum over the next couple of days. Also, the market is in a trading range, so traders should expect the bears to become disappointed soon. One way to disappoint the bears would be a deep pullback that tests back to the midpoint of the March – April trading range.
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