JAKARTA, Jan 28 (Reuters) - Indonesia's palm oil exports this year are expected to fall 3% on a yearly basis to 33.21 million tonnes as local demand for the edible oil rises, industry group GAPKI said on Friday, adding that output is seen up by 4.5%.
It was not clear if the forecast took into account the government's announcement a day earlier of a new measure to limit palm oil exports to try to curtail surging local cooking oil prices.
Shipments from Indonesia, the world's biggest producer and exporter of palm oil, in 2021 reached 34.23 million tonnes, while output stood at 46.89 million tonnes.
This year, crude palm oil output is seen at 49 million tonnes, while palm kernel oil output is forecast to be 4.8 million tonnes, GAPKI said.
"The 2021 palm oil production showed an anomaly," Mukti Sardjono, GAPKI executive director, said in a statement,
He said output fell in the second half of last year, when production usually picks up, due to scarcity and high prices of fertilisers.
"Therefore, production in the first semester of 2022 will be a guide on whether the drop in production will continue or whether it will reverse," he said, adding that wet weather in early 2022 will also affect output throughout the year.
Domestic demand for 2022 is expected to reach 20.59 million tonnes this year, up from 18.42 million tonnes last year. Food and biodiesel are the two biggest usages for palm oil at home.
GAPKI data also showed Indonesia's 2021 ending stock for the vegetable oil was 3.57 million tonnes.
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