EUR/NZD dropped 1195 pips in the past three months from 1.7500’s to 1.6300’s or 398 pips per month while GBP/NZD fell 1290 pips from 2.0313 to current three month lows at 1.9023 or 430 pips per month.
As EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and NZD/USD traded higher over the past three months, EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD dropped. EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD followed DXY lower from DXY 114.00 highs. The rise to NZD was derived from NZD/EUR and NZD/GBP.
EUR/NZD higher must break 1.6647 and many averages at 1.6700’s starting at 1.6723, 1.676,7 and 1.6797. Above 1.6700’s target,s 1.6800’s then averages at 1.6900’s to prevent the next hurdle to travel higher.
EUR/NZD targets 1.6519, 1.6592 then the vital break lines at 1.6640 and 1.6647. EUR/NZD trades in maximum 200 pip ranges to match DXY ranges. EUR/NZD trades on the oversold side however the accurate reading is range bound and without a significant target for immediate entry.
GBP/NZD
GBP/NZD trades deeply oversold however higher faces significant averages at 1.9288, 1.9439, 1.9451 and 1.9548. GBP/NZD’s problem to massive oversold is to match EUR/NZD at 200 pip ranges. GBP/NZD fails to trade its full capacity and was transformed as a wide range and big mover currency to no different than EURGBP and USD/CHF.
GBP/NZD above 1.9288 targets 1.9318, 1.9336 and 1.9347 then becomes stuck in 200 pip ranges from 1.9200’s to 1.9400’s. GBP/NZD for the week targets 1.9160 and 1.9200’s while EUR/NZD trades as long from lows due to lack of targets.
DXY found supports at 104.35, 104.60, 104.69, 104.94, and 105.35. Above 105.35, DXY opens a 200 pip range from averages at 105.00’s to 107.00’s then 108.00’s and 109.00’s. For the week, DXY higher targets 106.09 vs bottoms at 103.15 and 103.09.
The GBP/NZD, EUR/NZD and DXY road higher remains significantly difficult.
AUD/NZD
AUD/NZD is the exact same currency as EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD and bound by 200 pip ranges. AUD/NZD matches GBP/NZD to deeply oversold from averages at 1.0766, 1.0807, 1.0815 and 1.0889.
AUD/NZD targets 1.0665, 1.0675 and 1.0694. For the week, 1.0615 remains the best target. AUD/NZD brick wall of averages is located from 1.0700’s to 1.0900’s.
GBP/NZD 1.9023
GBP/AUD 1.8192
EUR/NZD 1.6591
EUR/AUD 1.5824
AUD/NZD 1.0518
GBP/AUD Vs EUR/AUD
GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD 5-year averages are located 1.8186 and 1.5871. For the week, EUR/AUD trades deeply overbought and targets 1.5600’s. GBP/AUD significant tops are located at 1.8223, 1.8246 and 1.8286.
GBP/AUD vital breaks for lower are located at 1.8186 and 1.8151. The next nearest averages below are found at 1.8075, 1.7999, 1.7982 and 1.7843. GBP/AUD requires a break at 1.7843 to target much lower levels at 1.7700 bottoms.
The break at 1.8186 and 1.8151 places GBP/AUD in a 76 pip trade range from 1.8186 to 1.8075. GBP/AUD exists the same as EUR/NZD by trading and wandering around without a significant purpose except to follow EUR/AUD.
From the lineup above, driver currencies are GBP/NZD, AUD/NZD and EUR/AUD while GBP/AUD and EUR/NZD exist to move as markets demand and to follow counterpart currencies.
The commonality to all currencies above are 200 pip ranges. In months and years past, above currencies traded ranges from 800 to 1200 pips.
Trading 200 pips ranges is a new low never seen before but its also a further commentary on Central Bank creation in 2016 to slow price speeds and flatten ranges.
The widest range currencies above are the final results. The word volatility to describe price movements no longer exists and actual volatility may never return.
Actual volatile currencies remaining are USD/JPY and JPY cross pairs due to USD/JPY’s relationship to DXY as either a follower or significant leader. If USD/JPY breaks its Correlations to JPY cross pairs then the range and character of USD/JPY will change drastically to slow price speeds and shorter ranges.
Overbought EUR/AUD targets 1.5300’s and 1.5200’s and GBP/AUD will follow. Next GBP/AUD target is located at the average break at 1.8075 then 1.7900’s.
