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The New Zealand dollar (NZD) sustained its upward momentum against the US dollar (USD) today, maintaining its position in the mid-0.6000s for the second consecutive day. This steady climb is underpinned by New Zealand's third-quarter retail sales data, which defied expectations by remaining flat, contrasting with an anticipated decline of 0.8%. Adding to the NZD's strength, retail sales excluding vehicles saw a notable increase of 1%, significantly outperforming the forecasted 1.5% contraction.
Earlier this week, the NZD/USD pair hit its highest point since August 10, although it has not managed to break above this peak since then. The slight uptick in the USD has curbed further gains for the NZD/USD pair, which continues to trade within a precise four-day-old range.
Investors are now looking ahead to several key events that could influence the currency pair's trajectory. Next week's Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) meeting is highly anticipated, as market participants seek clarity on future monetary policy. Additionally, today's release of US Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) figures is expected to provide further direction.
The sentiment in the market has also been shaped by recent minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which conveyed a hawkish tone. This was further bolstered by reports on Wednesday indicating a robust US labor market and an uptick in consumer sentiment.
Speculation about a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut by May 2024 is being incorporated into forecasts, signaling that investors are adjusting their long-term strategies based on these expectations.
As market players await today's early North American session for possible PMI-driven volatility, caution is advised due to investment risks that could cause potential emotional distress among investors.
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