On Tuesday, Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), will speak later in the session. The euro may be under renewed selling pressure if Lagarde adopts a cautious tone and pushes back against policy normalization expectations.
Meanwhile, Lagarde could clarify that inflation control is a priority, and the common currency will find demand. In an interview on Monday, ECB policymaker Fabio Panetta argued that pre-committing future policy steps would be unwise as the Russia-Ukraine conflict intensifies uncertainty.
EUR/USD is down firmly and is likely to continue downward on the daily time frame. In the Asian session, financial markets remained calm, allowing EUR/USD to rebound to 1.1232. However, the situation turned sour during the morning in Europe, when Russia launched a massive attack on Ukraine.
Technical View
On the 4-hour chart, after dropping to the almost two-year low at 1.1105, the EUR/USD price action has been emerging a triangle pattern during a volatile market action in the last two days. On Tuesday's trading session, the single currency is trading on the verge of the lower line of its triangle, approaching the 1.1163 barricade. If this hurdle holds support, the price may continue rangebound within the pattern towards the confluence of the 1.1230 barrier and descending resistance line.
However, EMAs are declining, and diverging 100 EMA below the 200 EMA is endorsing an overall selling pressure weight on the market. Suppose a broader risk-off mode strengthens the dollar. In that case, the euro may retest the 1.1163 support again. Dropping below this hurdle can trigger a move towards the next support around 1.1137. if sellers drive the market lower, 1.1121 and 1.1105 will be waiting to limit the further downward movement. If sellers overcome the two-year low of 1.1105, the downtrend is expected to resume.
Momentum oscillators are conveying a mixed picture right now. The RSI points down in the selling area after bouncing off the neutral zone. But momentum signals a diminished bearish bias by bottoming in the depth of the selling region. Likewise, negative MACD bars are shrinking slightly above the flattening signal line.
