The US dollar was mostly softer. The New Zealand dollar was the strongest (~0.85%) helped by cross-rate gains against the Australian dollar, following the RBA’s decision to stand pat. The Australian dollar fell to one-month lows below NZD1.08. There is scope for another 0.5%, or so to the next target near NZD1.0750. The RBA’s decision to leave its cash target at 4.10% was not surprising, and despite the hawkish rhetoric, the market downgraded the chances of a hike in Q3, though has it priced into Q4 and about a 50% chance of another hike too. The Australian dollar recovered from almost $0.6640 to $0.6700.
The PBOC is stepping up its effort to slow or stem the yuan’s weakness. It set the dollar’s reference rate at CNY7.2046 vs. expectations for CNY7.2361. There are reports that Beijing is considering a repo market for foreign investors in Chinese bonds. China will require export licenses for gallium and germanium (and related items) starting August 1. These metals are needed for semiconductor chips, radar, and other electronic equipment. It is seen as retaliation for the US-led effort to ban high-end chip exports, fabrication equipment, and new sanctions on cloud services. This escalation of tit-for-tat cones on the eve of Treasury Secretary Yellen’s visit to Beijing.
Japanese officials are slowly climbing the intervention ladder. The early rungs are different types of verbal intervention. Nikkei reports that Japan is in close communication with the US Treasury also seems to bolster the risk of intervention. The market has shied away from the JPY145 level.
The Stoxx 600 eked out a small gain and European bonds a bit heavier. Greek and Italian 10-year yields rose 4-7 bp, while the others were mostly 0.5-1.5 bp higher. Gilts rallied with yields falling 4.5 bp.
Germany reported a smaller-than-expected May trade surplus (14.4 bln euros vs expectations for 17.3 bln) and the April surplus was revised to 16.5 bln euros from 18.4 bln. Exports unexpectedly declined (-0.1%) for the first time since March. Imports, which had been expected to be flat were up 1.7% and April imports were revised to -0.1% from -1.7%. Any further economic disappointment risks stagnating or worse in Q2 after contracting by 0.5% in Q4 22 and by 0.3% in Q1 23.
The US bill auctions on Monday were greeted with strong demand. The indirect bidders took down the most since mid-April. About 2/3 of the bill supply since the debt ceiling drama have been covered by the decline in the reverse repo. That means the tightening of financial conditions may not be as much as feared. Still, it may be too early to draw hard conclusions. The 2-year/10-year yield curve has grown more inverse, now around -111 bp.
The dollar was sold to a new marginal multi-year low against the Mexican peso, slightly below MXN17.02. A series of better data, including a better June manufacturing PMI (50.9 vs 50.5 in May), a new record worker remittances ($5.69 bln in May), stronger IMEF survey surveys and a jump in June vehicle sales (113.5k vs.102.7k in May and 90.3k in June 2022). It is difficult to take about meaningful support when the greenback is at levels not seen since December 2015. However, the next big target may be MXN16.35-50.
Canadian markets were closed Monday. The market leans toward a hike on July 12. The US dollar made a marginal new 4-day low against the Canadian dollar just above CAD1.3200. That is roughly the halfway point of the bounce from the nine-month low in late June (~CAD1.3115) to high from the end of last week (~CAD1.3285). The next retracement is around CAD1.3180.
