The US dollar saw an uptick against the Indian rupee today as markets reopened following the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States. This movement comes on the heels of analysts' projections that India's Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) might outperform the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) forecast of 6.5%. With the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus allies (OPEC+) meeting set for November 30, there is heightened attention on potential oil supply adjustments that could impact India's economy.
Investors are also keeping a close eye on the S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) releases in the truncated US session post-holiday. Concurrently, Indian markets are preparing for a short-term closure due to the Guru Nanak Jayanti holiday next Monday, with significant anticipation building up for the release of India's crucial Q2 GDP figures next Thursday.
Analysts from Reuters have expressed a bullish outlook for the Indian stock market over the coming year, supported by RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das's projection of steady economic growth and resilience of the Indian Rupee amidst global financial changes. These include speculations around pauses in Federal Reserve rate hikes. The Ministry of Finance is closely monitoring inflation trends, with expectations of a decline from previous fiscal levels.
Technical analysis further highlights a bullish trajectory for the USD/INR pair, which has breached past ranges and sustained levels above key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). This suggests potential for further gains, bolstered by economic indicators such as S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and US Jobless Claims data that imply an economy steering clear of recessionary pressures.
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