USD/CAD Slips After BoC Rate Hike

• Bank of Canada raises rates by 0.25%
• US inflation falls to 3.0%, lower than expected

The Canadian dollar has posted strong gains in Wednesday’s North American session. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3146, down 0.63%. On the economic calendar, it has been a busy day, with the Bank of Canada raising interest rates and US inflation falling lower than expected.

Bank of Canada hikes by 0.25%

The Bank of Canada raised rates by 0.25% on Wednesday, bringing the cash rate to 5.0%. The BoC has delivered 475 basis points in hikes since March 2022 and the aggressive tightening has sent inflation lower. Still, the BoC’s rate statement noted that it remains concerned that progress towards the 2% target could stall and that it does not expect to hit the target before mid-2025. This can be considered a hawkish hike and the Canadian dollar has responded with strong gains on Wednesday.

US inflation falls more than expected

Wednesday’s US inflation report should please the Federal Reserve, which has circled high inflation has enemy number one. The June release showed headline inflation falling to 3.0%, down from 4.0% in May. This beat the consensus estimate of 3.1% and was the lowest level since March 2021. Even more importantly, the core rate fell from 5.3% to 4.8%, below the consensus estimate of 5.0%. On a monthly basis, both the headline and core rate came in at 0.2%, below the consensus estimate.

The inflation release was excellent news, but isn’t expected to change the Fed’s plans to raise rates at the July 27^th meeting. The inflation data didn’t change market pricing for the July meeting (92% chance of a hike), but did raise the chances of a September hike from 72% prior to the inflation release to 80% after the release. Although the jobs report on Friday showed nonfarm payrolls declining considerably, wage growth was higher than expected and likely convinced the Fed to raise rates at the July meeting before taking a pause.

USDCAD Daily Chart

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